Emerson College Polling indicates I’ve been righter than Todd Epp’s robot about who’s ahead in the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, but the new KELO-commissioned poll shows a surprisingly weak incumbent and surprisingly strong wingnuts.
Among 413 South Dakota Republican primary voters surveyed March 7–9, Congressman Dusty Johnson has the most support:
- Dusty Johnson: 28%
- Undecided: 23%
- Toby Doeden: 18%
- Governor Larry Rhoden: 17%
- Speaker Jon Hansen: 14%
With a 4.8% margin of error, Rhoden is essentially tied with Doeden and Hansen. If the undecideds break along the same lines, Johnson comes out with just above 35%, enough to forestall any run-off… not that Dusty would have to worry about a run-off, as he would win a one-on-one contest against either plodding Larry, abrasive and recordless outsider Toby, or less skilled and less charming Jon.
Rhoden could try to shake up those numbers by bailing on his support for the statewide sales-tax hike for property-tax relief that passed the Senate yesterday. That might help him eat some of Hansen’s lunch, as Hansen supported that bill. But Rhoden has already flip-flopped once on statewide property-tax relief; to flip again so quickly could well flop among Republican primary voters and among key Republican backers who joined him in this compromise… and those Republicans willing to compromise on taxes would not rally around Hansen and certainly not around do-nothing Doeden but instead around reliable and practical Johnson.
My projection for this race remains unchanged: Dusty wins the primary. The question now is just how badly Rhoden is embarrassed in yet another statewide defeat.
Watching those four Earth haters beating the lard out of each other in April’s debate is going to be a joy to witness!
Your right Dusty’s got it. There are many TINOs in South Dakota.
I urge every voting Democrat in South Dakota to register in the other party to ensure Toby Doeden wins the primary because he is the easiest for Dan Ahlers to beat.