Emerson College Polling indicates I’ve been righter than Todd Epp’s robot about who’s ahead in the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, but the new KELO-commissioned poll shows a surprisingly weak incumbent and surprisingly strong wingnuts.
Among 413 South Dakota Republican primary voters surveyed March 7–9, Congressman Dusty Johnson has the most support:
- Dusty Johnson: 28%
- Undecided: 23%
- Toby Doeden: 18%
- Governor Larry Rhoden: 17%
- Speaker Jon Hansen: 14%
With a 4.8% margin of error, Rhoden is essentially tied with Doeden and Hansen. If the undecideds break along the same lines, Johnson comes out with just above 35%, enough to forestall any run-off… not that Dusty would have to worry about a run-off, as he would win a one-on-one contest against either plodding Larry, abrasive and recordless outsider Toby, or less skilled and less charming Jon.
Rhoden could try to shake up those numbers by bailing on his support for the statewide sales-tax hike for property-tax relief that passed the Senate yesterday. That might help him eat some of Hansen’s lunch, as Hansen supported that bill. But Rhoden has already flip-flopped once on statewide property-tax relief; to flip again so quickly could well flop among Republican primary voters and among key Republican backers who joined him in this compromise… and those Republicans willing to compromise on taxes would not rally around Hansen and certainly not around do-nothing Doeden but instead around reliable and practical Johnson.
My projection for this race remains unchanged: Dusty wins the primary. The question now is just how badly Rhoden is embarrassed in yet another statewide primary defeat.
Watching those four Earth haters beating the lard out of each other in April’s debate is going to be a joy to witness!
Your right Dusty’s got it. There are many TINOs in South Dakota.
I urge every voting Democrat in South Dakota to register in the other party to ensure Toby Doeden wins the primary because he is the easiest for Dan Ahlers to beat.
Voting in the Republican primary to put forth an extreme nominee is a tempting tactic. However, as we saw with Trump, once someone like that gets momentum, they can be hard to stop before they do too much damage.
I have seen three Dusty commercials that show he is courting everyone — but separately: he has the “MAGA/Trump” commercial about the COMMUNIST Chinese/Build the wall/Protect our woman from trans; the goofy family-man sons fluff; and the moderate education/meat for lunch.
Doeden of course is all-in with MAGA/Trump.
It makes me wonder which one Dusty really is or how he would govern. His time in the house shows he is willing to follow the wind and bend a knee. It feels like he has the idea of a Republic backward: he represents the powerful — not the people.
Reynold F. Nesiba: “Ahlers beats Doeden.”
Before the debates, there might be some arm rhastling and gut-punchery. grudznick thinks it will come down to Mr. Rhoden and that glowering Mr. Doeden fellow, as Mr. Dusty and Mr. Hansen seem to stand no chance of applying leverage or hand strength let alone absorbing a solid gut punch.
Come on grudz, Dusty’s’s got it. Any bets?
O nails it. Dusty is too smart to be a real MAGA, but he has no courage, either. Like Thune, he bends the knee.
I perceive Dusty as Daugaard 2.0. Nothing special, but an improvement from Noem and Rhoden.
Here is more proof that Earth haters Rhoden and Hansen competing for the same voters.
https://www.kotatv.com/2026/03/14/poll-funded-by-rhoden-campaign-shows-johnson-ahead-primary-ballot-rhoden-leading-head-head-race-against-johnson/
Ben, the only reason I would disagree with you is the Trump effect. Dougaard was not infected by MAGA, while Dusty (and most of SD for that matter) have been. SD has lost that independence from national (irrelevant to SD) whims. and ultra-partisanship. At least, I don’t remember it being like it is now “in the old days.”
I moved back in 1992. Since then, Daugaard has been my favorite governor. He did more for public education than anyone else and exemplified family values.
I agree with O. Johnson is full MAGA even though he endorses public education and seems like a family man. I can’t think of one thing he has done for S.D and I can’t take him seriously. At the same time, anybody can do better than Noem, the one with no heart.
I certainly wouldn’t put it past Dusty to be lousier. He’s not a strong leader that’s for sure. But clearly he wanted out of Washington. He seems like the kind of guy who wants to be a manager-governor. Unless the tide shifts, we’ve shown we can do much worse while seemingly unable to do better.
Rhoden can’t even take a roast, let alone a real punch. He’s a sensitive old man.
VM, while I would agree that Duagaard became education friendly, that was only at the end of his second term. Before that he cut education funding right off the bat and had some awful reform ideas. SDEA worked hard to bring him around to a friend of education. His Blue Ribbon panel was a positive step to improve education, but lately that legacy and pathway has gone away.
larry kurtz, here is the math that terrifies me. A new poll shows that 100% of self-identified MAGA voters are pleased with Trump as president. 100%. 100%. Prices are up in grocery stores, housing costs are up, gas prices are up, we are in a new Middle East “war.” 100%
Trump won SD two-to-one in the presidential election.
With Doeden being the most Trump candidate, who stands a chance against that battering ram of votes? I sure don’t see Doeden as the easier candidate to beat in the general election — not around here — not in the age of MAGA as a cult.