Joshua Haiar considers the possibility that Kristi Noem might come slinking back to South Dakota looking for a job and smartly notes that one job she can’t get is Governor:
The 2026 governor’s race is closed to Noem. The state constitution says “no person shall be elected to more than two consecutive terms as governor.” Noem was elected in 2018 and 2022. There are four Republicans, including Rhoden, running for the party’s nomination for governor [Joshua Haiar, “Noem Could Forgo Her New Federal Role for a Political Race, But Observers Say It’s Unlikely,” South Dakota Searchlight, 2026.03.06].
Article 4 Section 2 take a return to Pierre off the table; the political reality of a deep bench of South Dakota Republicans glad to be rid of Kristi bar all other return routes:
Democratic activist Cory Heidelberger writes the political blog Dakota Free Press.… “Every signal I’ve seen from Gov. Larry Rhoden, as well as the other Republicans in power, is that they’ve had enough of Kristi, and they aren’t going to sacrifice anything to give her room to come back to power within the state,” Heidelberger said.
…The state’s lone U.S. House seat — held by Noem before she was governor — is up for grabs because Republican U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson is running for governor. Heidelberger noted that Republican Attorney General Marty Jackley, now running for U.S. House, lost to Noem in the 2018 primary for governor; therefore, “there’s no way he’ll step aside and let her run for her congressional seat again.” [Haiar, 2026.03.06].
All the Republican squawkers Haiar interviews send more of those signals:
Joel Rosenthal is a former chairman of the South Dakota Republican Party. He said Noem returning to state politics is unlikely in the near term, given her new role as special envoy for The Shield of the Americas, which Rosenthal speculated “was created for her to have a place to go after she became a liability to the president.”
…Pat Powers, a Republican, writes the South Dakota political blog Dakota War College. He said that with only a few weeks left to collect signatures until petitions are due to get on the South Dakota ballot, “I think the window for getting into the race is closed.”
Beating Rounds would come with its own challenges, given he “has had a campaign in motion for months, is popular in South Dakota, and already has President Trump’s endorsement,” Powers said.
A Republican co-host of Dakota Town Hall, a South Dakota politics podcast, Jake Schoenbeck, said he is “of two minds” about Noem’s future.
“A logical person would look at Rounds and see their endorsement from Trump, war chest, and general appeal and think ‘I don’t have a chance,’” Schoenbeck said. “But then there’s Noem, who seems to operate on a hubris so large she might be able to convince herself she still walks on water in South Dakota.”
Schoenbeck added that he thinks Rounds “would trounce her if she got in the race” [Haiar, 2026.03.06].
Hubris—Jake said that, not me. Kristi doesn’t think she walks on water, Jake. She just flies over it, on expensive government jets, with Corey Lewandowski.
But it’s nice to see my friends in South Dakota Republican circles generally agreeing with me… and it’s nice to see that Kristi Noem is political toast in D.C. and S.D.
The thing that saddens me the most in this article is the comment that Rounds has the endorsement of Trump… and people of SD still think that is a good thing. Does Rounds have grand kids that he would like to see serving in the Middle East? It’s time to saddle up and serve the nation, right?
Ms. Noem is still very young and could return as the Lead Rhoden Rhanger if Mr. Venhuizen goes for the DC gig he has always wanted. A Lt Governor Noem would rule the senate ruthlessly.