Joshua Haiar considers the possibility that Kristi Noem might come slinking back to South Dakota looking for a job and smartly notes that one job she can’t get is Governor:
The 2026 governor’s race is closed to Noem. The state constitution says “no person shall be elected to more than two consecutive terms as governor.” Noem was elected in 2018 and 2022. There are four Republicans, including Rhoden, running for the party’s nomination for governor [Joshua Haiar, “Noem Could Forgo Her New Federal Role for a Political Race, But Observers Say It’s Unlikely,” South Dakota Searchlight, 2026.03.06].
Article 4 Section 2 take a return to Pierre off the table; the political reality of a deep bench of South Dakota Republicans glad to be rid of Kristi bar all other return routes:
Democratic activist Cory Heidelberger writes the political blog Dakota Free Press.… “Every signal I’ve seen from Gov. Larry Rhoden, as well as the other Republicans in power, is that they’ve had enough of Kristi, and they aren’t going to sacrifice anything to give her room to come back to power within the state,” Heidelberger said.
…The state’s lone U.S. House seat — held by Noem before she was governor — is up for grabs because Republican U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson is running for governor. Heidelberger noted that Republican Attorney General Marty Jackley, now running for U.S. House, lost to Noem in the 2018 primary for governor; therefore, “there’s no way he’ll step aside and let her run for her congressional seat again.” [Haiar, 2026.03.06].
All the Republican squawkers Haiar interviews send more of those signals:
Joel Rosenthal is a former chairman of the South Dakota Republican Party. He said Noem returning to state politics is unlikely in the near term, given her new role as special envoy for The Shield of the Americas, which Rosenthal speculated “was created for her to have a place to go after she became a liability to the president.”
…Pat Powers, a Republican, writes the South Dakota political blog Dakota War College. He said that with only a few weeks left to collect signatures until petitions are due to get on the South Dakota ballot, “I think the window for getting into the race is closed.”
Beating Rounds would come with its own challenges, given he “has had a campaign in motion for months, is popular in South Dakota, and already has President Trump’s endorsement,” Powers said.
A Republican co-host of Dakota Town Hall, a South Dakota politics podcast, Jake Schoenbeck, said he is “of two minds” about Noem’s future.
“A logical person would look at Rounds and see their endorsement from Trump, war chest, and general appeal and think ‘I don’t have a chance,’” Schoenbeck said. “But then there’s Noem, who seems to operate on a hubris so large she might be able to convince herself she still walks on water in South Dakota.”
Schoenbeck added that he thinks Rounds “would trounce her if she got in the race” [Haiar, 2026.03.06].
Hubris—Jake said that, not me. Kristi doesn’t think she walks on water, Jake. She just flies over it, on expensive government jets, with Corey Lewandowski.
But it’s nice to see my friends in South Dakota Republican circles generally agreeing with me… and it’s nice to see that Kristi Noem is political toast in D.C. and S.D.
The thing that saddens me the most in this article is the comment that Rounds has the endorsement of Trump… and people of SD still think that is a good thing. Does Rounds have grand kids that he would like to see serving in the Middle East? It’s time to saddle up and serve the nation, right?
Ms. Noem is still very young and could return as the Lead Rhoden Rhanger if Mr. Venhuizen goes for the DC gig he has always wanted. A Lt Governor Noem would rule the senate ruthlessly.
When a bounty hunter comes home to roost in SD, give her a break.
Gotta make a living some way.
If the quote from the State Constitution in the above story is correct, then it would seem that Noem could run for and even “be elected” Governor once again:
The state constitution says “no person shall be elected to more than two consecutive terms as governor.”
Since she took a break and left the Governor’s office and served as captain of the USA’s new gestapo for a year, a third term as Governor would not be “consecutive” to Noem’s earlier stints as SD’s tax dollar waste-woman in chief.
As an aside, I wonder if Trump will let Noem keep her treasured blankie when she travel on planes other than the Homeland Security’s luxury jets she reported decided to spend tax dollars on.
Wasn’t Noem the one who said if elected guv in 2022 she would serve a full four year term? She didn’t last 2 years as guv and less than 2 as Ilsa, gestapo queen.
Come on, she can bat those eyes under her cowgirl hat and Rounds is toast. The queen of the America’s would win in South Dakota.
Trump was elected again after Jan. 6th so I wouldn’t put it past voters to do the same with Noem. However, I think it’s highly unlikely. She wasn’t just an embarrassment to her critics, but supporters too. Trump may be able to defy political gravity, but I don’t believe Noem can.
Ms. Noem has not the political clout of Mr. Governor Larry Rhoden these days. Mr. Rhoden will choose the way most all positions fall out here very shortly. And if he wants Ms. Noem back in the Rhoden Administration, you know it will happen.
People have noticed that Governor Rhoden has not left the state for self-promotion, rocked the boat with educational curriculum, spent money on outlandish ego enhancers and outsourced SD contracts to those in other states, had dental/? implants done in another state or hired friends and lackies from elsewhere. People around here like him because he brought calm after the storm.
Overall, Governor Rhoden is a gentleman while Noem is from another planet. I don’t think Johnson has a chance because he is a not a gentleman, he’s Howdy Doody.
Noem won 2 consecutive terms, so she has to sit the next one out. She can run again in 2030. Similar to what Janklow did as he totaled 4 terms with a break in between.
Nothing precludes her from serving as Governor Rhoden’s sidekick.
Nothing constitutional, only Larry Rhoden’s good sense, the fact that he has a far more capable sidekick right now, and Noem’s ego.
BCB, I read Article 4 Section 2 as referring to the full term as contemplated at the time of the election. In 2018, voters elected Noem to a four-year term. In 2022, voters elected her to a second, consecutive term. The term we contemplate now in 2026 is consecutive to the terms that were voted on in 2018 and 2022. Since Noem was elected to those two immediately preceding terms, we cannot elect her to the third term in that row.
I, too, am surprised that Rhoden’s intervening term in office does not affect that formula, but as I read the constitution and think about it, I can see the logic. Rhoden was not elected to a term of his own; he is simply carrying out the remainder of Noem’s second term. Her abandonment of that second term does not change the fact that she was elected to two consecutive terms and thus cannot be elected to the very next term.
Article 4 Section 2 also prohibits the Lieutenant Governor from being elected to more than two consecutive terms. That does not stop the Lt. Gov. from running for Gov. after two terms, as we have seen with Dennis Daugaard and now with Larry Rhoden.
Now if Kristi really wanted to come back to the Mansion, and if Larry really wanted to help her, they could make this deal: if Larry wins the primary, he names Kristi as his running mate. If the Larry+Kristi ticket wins in November, then come January, Larry and Kristi can take the oath, Larry can resign, and Kristi can ascend to Governor.
But that scheme depends on many things that won’t happen: (a) Larry giving up Tony for Kristi, (b) Larry winning the primary, and (c) the general electorate voting for a ticket with Kristi on it.
Cory, your analysis appears correct. Perhaps VM is right that Noem cannot run again until 2030. Either way if a majority of SD voters are not yet fed up with Noem’s corruption, wastefulness and hate mongering then I truly wonder if there is any hope for this State, at least until most of these voters finally die off.
Ms. Noem wouldn’t run for governor again. She’s done that. Senator, maybe. She’s going to stick around and be the pretty woman representing America to the America’s. Trump still has to invade Mexico once he’s done bombing Iran. She could play a role in that, although the other idiot running the WAR department wouldn’t appoint a woman to anything so that remains to be seen.
I do feel somewhat sorry for her. She’s played the big bad ass to fit in and done just what Trump wanted so she’s the fall guy. She’s had an affair with Corey but she’s a woman in the unequal Republican party so she has to walk the line when they don’t. Republicans love Trump even though they know he’s a misogynist rapist. They pass it off because God forgave David for sending a man to his death so he could partake of his wife. That’s the God they so love. Trump is right up there with them.
She’s only looking upward so I believe she’ll run for President in 28. She has all those horseback ads to use too.
Pretty early on in her tenure as Governor, Noem made clear she was more interested in currying Trump’s favor and landing herself a nice federal job. She was more interested in raising her profile and jetting around the country than in working the Legislature and doing the job in Pierre.
She didn’t build that fancy studio and dress up in multiple costumes to impress the masses of SD. It was to impress all the suckers nationwide.
Noem is done with SD.