NPR provides Electoral College data that again shows why Trump’s July 3 visit here may be the only Presidential candidate visit we get this cycle. According to NPR’s analysis, our next President, Joe Biden, has 185 pretty reliable Electoral College votes, while Trump has only 125. Add the leaners, and Biden is only 32 votes away from the 270 necessary to win, while Trump is 84 votes short of victory.
This map has some parallels to the map I looked at last year to explain how far South Dakota is from relevance in the 2020 Presidential election. Biden has five states in his Leaning category: New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Michigan, and Virginia. Trump has three Leaners: Texas, Iowa, and Georgia. So Biden might have to use more jet fuel to keep his leaners leaning properly (assuming voters want candidates flying in and gathering large infectious crowds… and Fox News polling finds 59% of voters think large campaign events and rallies are a bad idea right now, so maybe our upside-down reality includes the possibility that candidates can win more votes by staying home). But if no leaners flip, Biden needs to turn two tossup states to win, while Trump needs to turn at least five. In that scenario, Biden could lose the four biggest tossup states—Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina—and still win the Presidency with the four remaining, smaller (translate: cheaper to campaign in) tossup states plus that one teetering Maine district. Alternatively, Biden could go all-in campaigning in Florida, win there, and force Trump to win all seven other tossup states.
Biden has more efficient paths to victory than Trump… and none of Biden’s paths lead through South Dakota.
I think this far out that map may as well be of the moon. Right now I’d put Wisconsin in the “Lean Biden” category. Trump is leaking older folks to Biden over the coronavirus issue. Young and black voters are mobilized against Trump’s racism.
I can’t understand Trump’s strategy, though. Holding rallies where his supporters come with no mask and no social distancing is like Hitler gassing the Hitler Youth. He should be holding Hate Trump rallies where he invites Black Lives Matter protestors to come jeer him. I’m hoping Trump has a couple big rallies in Waukesha to kill off a sizable part of his base, although the suburban women there are leakng away from him, too.
One problem with NPR’s map is that it doesn’t take into account GOP election fraud. That makes it tougher and is why a Blue Tsunami is required. The “Leaning Blue” states must be won by large margins to overcome GOP cheating. They’ll be desperate because they know if they lose both the legislative and executive branches a bunch of them are going to prison. No Obama justice escapes will be acceptable. I expect such a loss to be soon followed by Moscow Mitch and equally crooked wife moving to Russia. Other Congressional crooks are likely to follow.
Don, I was only in Oconomowoc for 4 months, but it was an election year and I heard repeatedly that Waukesha is GOP Central in Wisconsin.
Six of drumpf’s advance rally staff have tested positive for covid in Tulsa.
Wingnuts are bound and determined to keep exposing people to covid in the mistaken belief covid will up and disappear when it gets around to it. They also want the staggering economy to stay open.
Mike, what is the point of a death-cult if the leader never asks the flock to die for him?
Personally, I think drumpf just expects his sheep to sacrifice themselves to his magnificence..
From v ideos and comments coming from Tulsa, the outdoor area of drumpf’s rally is nearly devoid of supporters and there appear to be lotsa empty seats inside, as well. drumpf and Pence cancelled their outdoor speeches already.
A nifty little tune tweeted from tonight’s poorly attended covid rally:
🎵He sold his soul for a shot at fame,
Catchphrase and wigs and the jokes are lame,
He’s got no style,
he’s got no grace,
He’s banal and facile,
he’s a fat waste of space🎵
Oliver Willis
Tulsa fire marshal is reporting official attendance at the rally as just under 6,200.
Trump cult as death cult—scary, but conceivable. Strange how the pro-life party produces such anti-life monsters.
Two states, Mr. Biden. Get Pennsylvania back on your side, then get Nevada or Arizona to swing your way. And just let Trump keep talking himself into his political grave.
I don’t want just a victory, I want a barn burning, stampede run away victory, the likes of which has never been seen in this country…. I want Trump and all his supporting republicans to understand just how despicable and wrong they are and have been for the last 15 years and that message can’t be too emphatic.
I agree with JW. Crush the GOP.
Yep – drop rocks on ’em.
I’ve been watching the polls closely and several of them predict confidently that Arizona, because of Hispanics favoring Democrats, will turn blue in November for the first time in 24 years. Also other polls and political experts have Nevada, Wisc and PA leaning blue. Some polls even have Biden leading in Florida. I predict a landslide win for Biden.
Although the Covid 19 pandemic and millions being out of work started the Trump downfall, it is Black Lives Matter that has really been the tipping point for Trump’s unpopularity. Independents and Trump Democrats have been turned off by Trump’s indifference and racist attitude of it. Americans in general now support BLM after seeing the George Floyd video.
Thanks to everyone using their cell phones to record police corruption and beatings (the elderly guy knocked over and being ignored, Ahmaud Arbery etc), white Americans are now beginning to understand the angst of the protesters and coming to terms with the reality that this has been happening through the decades. It is an awakening to millions of Americans the callousness and brutality of police when it comes to black people. Trump had a chance to lead the nation on Police reform and speak out, he chose not to. Americans are fed up and disgusted at their President. Trump is more worried about being seen as weak drinking a class of water and waking down a ramp. Trump knows he has lost. The one thing Democrats have to make sure is that no minorities are turned away from voting on election day. The republican WILL try to prevent blacks and hispanics from voting . I can guarantee that. I will be doing all I can on election day volunteering to make sure they are not turned away.