The Bureau of Finance and Management offered what passes for optimism in Pierre last week, as it projected that the Legislature will have $19 million more to spend that Governor Kristi Noem proposed in her visionless cheapo budget. Let’s hope they can keep the Governor from throwing that money away on her ineffectual caprices.
BFM projects $1.734 billion in general fund revenues in Fiscal Year 2021. They guess sales tax revenue will be up 1.6% from the current fiscal year, contractor’s excise tax up 4.5%, lottery up 2.8%… the only major revenue stream declining will be tobacco tax, which is supposed to drop 5.2%. Still, the total FY2021 projection comes in 0.6% below FY2020 revenues, since FY2020 includes $43.8 million in one-time revenues:
That $19 million more than Governor Noem projected could be said to have come almost entirely from the Market Facilitation Program, the socialist handouts to farmers Trump is using to bribe them into ignoring the long-term damage of the tariffs. BFM posts this map of Trump farm welfare checks by state from the Farm Bureau to show that, as of May 13, 2019, South Dakota farmers had received $429 million in MFP payments:
According to BFM’s Farm Bureau data, 2019 brought another $402 million in Trump farm-bribe socialism to South Dakota:
Multiply $402 million in socialism by 4.5%, the state sales tax rate, and you get—er, the state general fund gets—a bit over $18 million. That almost makes up for the $20 million we’re losing in internet service tax thanks to one of Kristi Noem’s votes in Washington. Another round of MFP checks was supposed to go out week before last.
BFM bases its projections in part on these key economic indicators, which show that, despite income growth and low unemployment, our economy remains somewhat stagnant:
Given a state GDP of about $53 billion, that 1.9% growth estimated for this fiscal year is about a billion dollars. Trump farm-bribe socialism made up at least 40% of that GDP growth, more once we factor in the last batch of checks. Take that socialism out of the equation (and Trump’s FY2021 budget would whack more farm support than that), and South Dakota’s annual GDP growth sags well below the already anemic 1.7% decade average.
Note also the decline in housing starts in South Dakota. You’d think if people are making more money, more people would be building houses. But housing starts declined in South Dakota 30% from 2016 to 2019, during which period housing starts nationally rose 10%. Hmmm… maybe there are fewer people sticking around South Dakota to build houses… which would also explain continued low unemployment.
The new budget projections are better than the kick in the pants Governor Noem wants to give us, but our seeming growth rests on the shaky ground of Trump socialism and masks other weaknesses that are crying out for Governor Noem to get some vision and address.
Related Reading: KELO-TV’s Michael Geheren goes graph-bonkers and provides this rich pile of details on the South Dakota budget.
Great report. Thanks.
Chubby says China is our greatest enemy, so the bribing will continue. How are those bribes listed as income on the tax return? Wouldn’t that qualify for the RICO Act for money laundering?
Roger Cornelius Memorial cartoon by Marty Two Bulls.
is.gd/e0LduH
$$$ for teacher raises!!!!
Legalize weed and allow farmers to grow both weed and hemp to have crops to market. Reduce their need for Economic Oaf’s bribes.
BTW, it’s official, weed is much less of a problem in every way than liquor. Drey Samuelson says so. is.gd/YXbg0Y
Arrrgh, Facebook. Hate it.
$19M would put about $1,980 more in each teacher’s pocket.
As your next Governor, I promise to direct every penny of upward revision in revenue projections toward teacher pay. I promise to make up for every penny in downward revisions with cuts to GOED.
Save some pesos for newly accredited South Dakota Uni with no students, faculty or classrooms.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/agency-saved-by-devos-appears-to-have-accredited-a-college-with-no-students-faculty-or-classrooms/
Well Mike, this sounds perfect for Greedy Grifter and Betsy DeVoid of All Humanity. From your link:
“a profound lack of compliance with the ‘most basic’ responsibilities of an accreditor”, describes the ACIS, which Betsy DeVoid of All Humanity reinstated. As I said, perfect.
How many have signed up for Reagan University in SF? It’s perfectly accredited by Betsy’s favorite agency, ACIS.
Greedy Grifter and Betsy DeVoid of All Humanity are not only filthy human beings lacking even a shred of basic decency. They’re massively incompetent at being solid waste floating in sewage lagoons as well.