Is it wet enough for you? State meteorologist Laura Edwards says 2019 is already over an inch wetter than the last most precipitatory year on record:
Edwards said South Dakota has received a statewide average of 29.37 inches of precipitation so far this year. The previous wettest season in the state was in 1915, when 27.97 inches of precipitation fell.
…Rivers took in a lot of runoff from the snow melt and the rains that followed in the spring and summer, Edwards said. She said the James River, Big Sioux and Missouri rivers received 16 times the average amount of runoff they usually get during the month of September, which she estimated was double the previous record.
“That’s exceptional,” Edwards said [Erik Kaufman, “South Dakota Endures Historic Precipitation in 2019,” Mitchell Daily Republic, 2019.11.23].
Shawn Cable says it’s going to snow in the southern part of the state tomorrow and again on the weekend (eat fast Thursday, shop online). Edwards says it looks like the precip could keep up all winter, with not much chance to soak in once it gets warm:
“Last year at this time was very similar. We’ve seen this in a number of recent years with wet falls and very wet springs,” Edwards said. “(Forecasts are) showing December through April in general as wetter than average. I’m not saying it will be as big a snow year as it was last year. It’s hard to see that much snow two years in a row, and it’s not what we need. But even with an average winter, we’re going to see some issues. Our soil is very wet and there’s a lot of water on land” [Kaufman, 2019.11.23].
Remind me to put the shovel in my car… and maybe some pontoons on the bottom for springtime!
Here’s KELO-TV drone video of the flooding in Madison back in September—better plan ahead for a repeat!
Good thing human caused climate change is a hoax or we’d be setting records for bad weather nearly yearly.
Was the dirty thirties caused by man-made climate change too? It most likely ain’t all one thing. The very saturated ground will probably create another hard and deep freeze this winter with a repeat of those problems or worse: Frozen supply lines from the street, broken and shifted sewer lines, and an overburdened sewer sanity system. Madison had a poorly publicized but very real and official sewer sanity emergency for weeks caused by too many sump pumps not routed outside and the broken sewer lines acting as farm tile. The ground right now is extremely wet.
The drought of the Dirty 30s was not directly human caused. Poor farming methods were responsible for the “dirty” part. The entire episode lasted less than 10 years. That’s a mere blip in climatological terms.
The heating up of the Earth now has been going on for 20+ years. The temperature records of the 30s have been eclipsed in that time. This is an entirely different critter from the 1930s. The 2030s will make that look like a lovely Spring— unless enormous changes are made Right Now.
A college student told me they are being taught natural trends are being exacerbated by climate change. My sump pump just clicked on it’s only a hole in the ground no pipe going to it this has never happened before at this time of year. Although farming methods have changed shelterbelts have been ripped out and every pothole tiled it’s always gonna be about the money. Weather already seems more volatile and unpredictable it should only be about the science, but scientists are fallible, subject to politics and groupthink, and the earth is more complex than anyone can understand. This Madison flood and excessive amount of rain wasn’t predicted one day before the event, one day, so there’s also no way you know what will happen in 2030. I’m not saying we should continue to be reckless, but there ain’t no crystal balls. Scientists are wrong all the time about cause and effect, in the human body, in the world, things are often just too complex to make predictions. They predicted 4 inches of snow last night we got nothin.
“farming methods have changed shelterbelts have been ripped out and every pothole tiled”
Really, really bad practices that are all about the $, as you said, HC.
(I don’t think a snow storm prediction = a century+ of climate science. 😊)
The science is in 97% agreement on this. That’s incredibly high. 97%. I’d take that deal on pretty much anything.
Scientists are probably not exactly correct on on the exact degree of temperature, exact sea level rise down to the millimeter, etc, but 97% say the overall point holds.
Terrifying.
I’m sorry Deborah I ain’t buyin it (hook, line and sinker). That 97% is Groupthink. Scientists are also completely vulnerable to it, possibly even more than the rest of us. It reminds me of something from a college psych class that has stayed with me for decades. It was a training exercise for Japanese executives (in Japan) their culture especially embraced conformity. They had to stand out in the middle of a normal busy sidewalk, scream and do crazy things to draw attention to themselves. They were being forced to break down their inhibitions, get comfortable being the center of attention, but also learn independence of thought from all that homogeneousness. In the video below they explain how in each step toward becoming a “credible professional” there is a constant sifting by bias. Starts at the application process to grad school, in school don’t push back too much against professors, you need the grades and recommendations, then you get a job, lets say even in research you must keep your boss happy, just keeps getting more entrenched till finally nobody wants to go against prevailing thought. Well, we got 4 inches of snow last night totally unpredicted. They’re wrong all the time. This is so similar to our disagreement about Transgender. Let’s cut off that penis and make him a girl it’s gonna work out great (exceptions noted). I’ve seen this myself so many times. In meetings, group decision making areas, but no, you’re saying they use double-blind studies this is different. But it isn’t really because at a certain point almost no professional is willing to interpret the data differently and look like a heretic. Their career will be over. I should collect some data about just how often science has bungled. They probably ain’t braggin about that. My ex was a chemistry phd who did cancer research smart as heck but I could see when he was running off just emotion related to this very topic. He wanted to get huge stores of seeds, worried about mass migrations and would get halfway hysterical. Well, soon, I’ve got to fire up the snowblower.
Groupthink, a silent threat to your Science: http://www.pimpyourscience.org/lesson/16/Groupthink-a-silent-threat-to-your-Science.html
“That 97% is Groupthink.”
Your opinion supported by nothing credible except your anecdotal experiences that have powerfully shaped your opinions. You consistently transfer your experiences to everyone and universalize them.
That is your error.
Ms. Geelsdottir says to Mr. camper:
grudznick laughing. grudznick laughing.
But Deborah that statement Grutz is laughing about partially defines Groupthink. Consider the definition below – DFP goes something like this: Oh Deb you have so many good thoughts, Oh Mike you have so many good links, Oh BCB you’re so wise, Oh Porter you are so right, Oh Grutz you’re such an idiot. And the whole thing whirls around that’s why I call it a Bias Factory. This goes on in academia, institutions, etc.
Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome. … Furthermore, groupthink can produce dehumanizing actions against the “outgroup”.
Oh happy, you’re so jealous. Grudzilla is a troll.
HC, because several of us agree does not in itself indicate group think. Agreement without supporting evidence does. Acknowledging BCB’s expertise and willingness to share it does not, in itself, demonstrate groupthink. Supporting one another in these troubled times is a positive act. Look at how you perceive these simple, everyday actions.
I know exactly what groupthink is. I also recognize that when you fail to find agreement in other commenters, you fail to consider that you could be in error. You often even refuse to reconsider your opinion. Rather, you attribute a variety of fallacies in the thinking processes of those who disagree.
Your response is your choice, and I’m not buying it.
No Mike, I’m talking about the dangers of conformity. What that does to kids, how it affects science, research, education, how products are advertised and marketed, and the heinous crimes that are committed. There’s a very long list. But you’re here in a little social group. Do you never question your role? Why you’re here so much and what need that fulfills? That’s something an adult can do, but children can not yet sort it all out. In my opinion sociology is discounted too much, as though the influence of groups has little meaning. Social psychology. So many things are social diseases that become psychological. There’s nothin wrong with those kids. And think Y2K Survival Kit. Let’s find a warehouse of unsold merchandise and put on a new label: Climate Change Survival Kit. Deb is terrified!!!
Deb, I was being somewhat rhetorical. I know you’re not always wrong!!! That’s called a joke. Or me. Or Grutz, or Ryan, or others who tend to have different perspectives. But there are a wide variety of fallacies of thinking in everyone. Including myself the problem is we rarely see that but as a group you circle the wagon. All these social influences are going on. That’s why it’s “fun” to read Breitbart. The conformity is staggering they think they’re just as right. It’s within science too. That was my major point, but really just as much how it affects children. All these ridiculous judgements made on kids at too early of an age.
Conformity is every right wing nut job on here and out there that believes drumpf is the chosen one and can do no wrong. They are the perfect example of group think followed by group gropes to confirm their conformity.
Yes, Trump is a good example, but so is Bill Clinton who had many accusers. Juanita Broaddrick being one of the strongest examples a nursing home administrator who said he raped her. Democrats don’t like to talk about that cause he’s on your side. Trump has never actually been accused of rape. At a minimum Clinton was a misogynist jerk who abused the power imbalance, but likely much more. Groupthink.
The most prevalent and destructive use of “groupthink” in SD is among the Republican Party, Dan Lederman, and Pat Powers. Whenever a new idea requiring change is proposed it’s almost always fear mongered as coming from “out of state” interests. As if we people in other states are on a mission to change South Dakota. What we do want is to help SD people with no voice and no power to get what they deserve as Americans. e.g. The ethics law was labeled as coming from out of staters. The Medicaid expansion was denied because it came from Washington. Constitutionally mandated abortion rights are denied because they are the work of out of staters. Republican leaders in SD lead the poorly educated around with a leash of groupthink and a nose ring of fear.
Chubby has been accused of rape, by his wife and by this lady.
“In an excerpt of a book published initially by New York magazine’s The Cut in June, Carroll wrote that Trump raped her in a Bergdorf Goodman dressing room in the mid-1990s.” https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/jean-carroll-sues-trump-defamation-rape-accusation-denial/story?id=66740654
All Chubby’s accusers that we know of, 40 some, Make America Grope Again. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-sexual-assault-allegations-all-list-misconduct-karen-johnson-how-many-a9149216.html
So, what will we do when we get to this next year and we cannot plant crops or sell them to China? How many more billion will be given out to corporate welfare farmers?
Jerry, GM and Chrysler are probably getting jealous and wondering if farmers are going to have to pay this welfare back. I believe those two repaid the USA. Correct?
Imo Economic Oaf ought to pay it back since a good share of farmer’s financial problems are due to his massive incompetence.
Happy, please think. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-models-got-it-right-on-global-warming/?text=Climate%20Models%20Got%20It%20Right%20on%20Global%20Warming
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/politics/read-the-mueller-report/
And read factual data. https://www.npr.org/2019/12/03/782759563/read-impeachment-inquiry-report-by-house-intelligence-committee
1782 was actually the “wettest” year on record for “South Dakota.” You must remember, record and year and wettest are all terms that Bob the Caveman could out debate you on. Bob, by the way, is one of the wettest fellows grudznick knows.