Someone in the comment section got me thinking about girls versus boys in the contests for South Dakota Legislature. Let’s stroll through some numbers, with two editorial notes:
- These figures are based on all candidates certified for the ballot and not withdrawn as of today, Sunday, June 3. These figures will change, depending on who wins in Tuesday’s primary, who withdraws during the summer, whom the parties appoint to any vacancies, and whom our alternative parties might nominate as Legislative candidates at their conventions (I love HB 1286!).
- I count District 7 Senate candidate Mary Perpich as the Democrat she professes and registers to be, not the independent the ballot will show her as.
First, let’s break down who’s running for Legislature by party, sex, and chamber:
| Party | Sex | House | Senate | SDLeg |
| Democrats | F | 28 | 14 | 42 |
| M | 45 | 23 | 68 | |
| Republicans | F | 21 | 7 | 28 |
| M | 51 | 36 | 87 | |
| Independents | F | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| M | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Libertarians | F | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| M | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| All | F | 50 | 21 | 71 |
| M | 101 | 60 | 161 |
Predictably, men outnumber women in every category. By chamber and by party, women make up the following percentages of Legislative candidates:
- All Legislative candidates: 31%
- House candidates: 33%
- Senate candidates: 26%
- Democratic candidates: 38%
- Republican candidates: 24%
Given the current primary and general election match-ups, there are five two-member House districts, three single-member House districts, and seventeen Senate districts with no female candidates. Plus, there are fourteen House districts with only one female candidate. One single-member House district—District 26B—has no male candidates, and three two-member House districts—8, 13, and 27—have just one male candidate. Every Senate district has at least one male candidate. Thus…
- House seats guaranteed to men: 27
- House seats guaranteed to women: 4
- Senate seats guaranteed to men: 17
- Senate seats guaranteed to women: 0
- Largest possible number of House seats women could win: 43
- Largest possible number of Senate seats women could win: 18
It is thus mathematically possible that women could win majorities in both chambers of the South Dakota Legislature… but pulling that off would require that female candidates win all 18 of the Senate races in which at least one candidate is female. That hexa-hat trick would depend on, among other ladies, Republican Lora Hubbel beating Rep. Wayne Steinhauer in the primary, then beating Democrat Mark Guthmiller in the general, and that’s not going to happen.
Notice that a female majority would require women to win from both parties. Democratic women can win at most 27 House seats and 13 Senate seats (counting Mary P!). Throw in the sole female independent, Cory Ann Ellis in District 7, and achieving matriarchy would require victories by at least eight of the GOP’s 21 female House candidates and five of their seven female Senate candidates.
On the other hand, preserving patriarchy requires just one guy to beat one gal in a Senate race. Heck, that could happen Tuesday if Rep. Susan Wismer and Allison Renville split the female vote and Thomas Bisek holds on to all the fellas and wins the District 1 Senate primary and, given the absence of a GOP challenger, the District 1 Senate seat.
Tuesday’s primary could knock out nine female candidates from House races and nine from Senate races:
- Maximum GOP female House primary losers: 6
- Max Dem female House primary losers: 3
- Max GOP female Senate losers: 7
- Max Dem female Senate losers: 2
Two days to go until I can simplify my spreadsheet!
It is good you are keeping track because, as the magic orbs of loofa know, we can’t count in Ms. Krebs during this election to count the votes and track the winners. She’s very busy.
Are those numbers for women up over average for SD? Nationwide, the number of women running for office is way up and, among Democrats, women have been more successful than not in primaries. GOP women candidates are significantly fewer in number and less successful thus far, trends apparent in SD.
BTW, the DFL candidate for governor in Minnesota is Erin Murphy. She was my state senator when I lived in St. Paul and she has served as Senate majority leader. She’s really an outstanding person. She named her running mate today, Erin May Quaade of Apple Valley, a first term state senator. So Minnesota Democrats are represented by two women via their state convention. However, Tim Walz will continue to run till the August primary. His Lt. Gov candidate is Peggy Flanagan.
Minnesota GOP endorsed Jeff Johnson for gov and he selected a woman as his running mate. Tim Pawlenty is still running but hasnt named a mate. Hes more likely to go with a trumpelstilskin guy.
Lots of women in line for top offices in Minnesota.
The average for SD? Oh man, Debbo—now you’re asking me to check history!
For the moment, let me compare to the 2018 Legislature:
Jenna Haggar Netherton stepped down from her District 10 Senate seat in April. Margaret Sutton and Spencer Wrightsman face off in Tuesday’s GOP primary. The winner will face Democrat Rachel Willson in the general.
And in Minnesota: Erin + Erin? I hope that works better than our Susan+Susy tandem did in 2014!