Blame Donald Trump’s tariffs for all that persistent inflation. A new analysis from the New York Federal Reserve finds that if Trump hadn’t hammered us with tariffs, prices on consumer goods would have gone down:
In the chart below, the solid line shows the twelve-month change in consumer goods prices, and the dashed line shows the counterfactual without tariffs. Goods price inflation was back near its slightly negative pre-COVID average for most of 2024 and began to edge up late that year, before the new tariffs were introduced. It then picked up through 2025. Our estimates attribute this increase to the tariffs: by February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 percentage points to goods price inflation, and without them goods prices would have fallen slightly [Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein, “How Fast Do Tariffs Pass Through into Consumer Prices?” New York Federal Reserve: Liberty Street Economics, 2026.10.06].
Trump tariffs didn’t just prevent discounts on goods we buy from Canada, Europe, and China; his one-note trade policy also prevented us from getting lower prices on American-made products:
Tariffs also affect the prices of goods made in the U.S. This happens in two ways. First, many U.S. producers rely on imported parts and materials, so tariffs raise their cost of production. For example, a tariff on steel makes it more expensive to build a car in the U.S. We refer to this effect as the marginal cost channel. Second, when tariffs make imported goods more expensive, U.S. producers of competing goods face less pressure to keep their own prices down. We refer to this effect as the strategic complementarity channel. We find evidence that U.S. producers increased their prices at the factory gate because of both channels, and the marginal cost effect is the larger of the two [Amiti, Heise, and Weinstein, 2026.10.06].
Just imagine: no tariffs, no inflation.
If Trump hadn’t declared his trade war, if he’d acted like a Reagan Republican, if he’d read American history right and chosen free trade over tariffs, he could say, honestly, “Check it out—stuff is cheaper!” and the single biggest issue dragging his party down in the midterms, affordability, would be gone, or at least taking a backseat to everything else Trump is screwing up for Americans and for his party.
But no. Because Trump wanted to play William McKinley, you get higher prices… and Republicans lose the House and the Senate.
Creighton University’s Ernie Goss follows the economies of ten midwestern states including South Dakota’s where the manufacturing sector lost about 800 jobs over the last year or 1.8% of its manufacturing base, ag workers still face severe stressors and a mental health provider shortage affects at least 62 of South Dakota’s 66 counties.
Goss noted that in September the overall reading fell below growth neutral for the fourth time in the past six months and 79.0% of banksters reported that the Trump tariffs levied a negative impact on the agriculture and livestock economies where persisting pessimism is dooming Republican candidates even in red states.
Trump loves tariffs. He gets to pronounce them on a whim like a king. His Mel Brooks version of Its Good to be the King. Of course he can’t legally but why bother with law and order and the Constitution. They only get in the way. Its chaos for the big boy. He’ll retire next year when the Democrats take power of the congress. He’ll pardon himself and his grifting crime family first of course and anybody who can pay him. Sorry Kimberly, so close on both. The rest of his crew can just move and be proper ganders at Fox propaganda. Matches made in heaven all around.
Perhaps I live a very sheltered life but I just don’t see the effects of
this terrible economy. In my town four duplexes are under construction
and upon completion they are all spoken for. The ethanol plant east
of town is doing a major expansion. The guy across the street from
me is building a new shop to putter around in. I have a relative in
Pennsylvania and he doesn’t see the gloom and doom either.
Some farmland in NE South Dakota recently sold for 10,700
dollars per acre. Apparently the farm economy is not as bad
as is being portrayed in the media.
Hey, what’s not to like about $7 diesel fuel?
50.0 is growth neutral.
And.
https://www.creighton.edu/economicoutlook/mainstreeteconomy
Edwin, take a trip to the grocery store and watch people. Watch people pickup items, and then put them back because they cannot afford them. You see this constantly going on especially with meat.
I’m not much for eating out, but from what I have been told many places are struggling dealing with the high price of inputs which mean they have raised their prices considerably. $30 for a meal for 2 at a fast food restaurant takes many people over 3 hours of work to pay for.
If you are someone who makes it paycheck to paycheck you are likely struggling in this economy.
I can remember as a kid land prices were high and then came the bust when many farmers lost it all.
People have a way of ignoring what they don’t want to see. Edwin is obviously a Trump lover and has money enough so he’s not feeling the pinch. I’m the person Scott described, picking something up and putting it down because it was $2.99 last week and now it’s $3.99. For us on a fixed income, that extra dollar has to come from somewhere. We don’t have investments and/or savings.
Get off your high horse Edwin. Come to a small town in the boonies and pay $2.00 for one avocado. Then, when you get it home, it’s black inside and down the drain it goes. And it’s going to get worse this winter.
A true Trumpism just happened. He is blaming Zelensky as the reason diesel prices are so high. The lying cowardly dork is still playing his game. Who knew Roy Cohn would still work. Stupid is as stupid does.
It would be irony if it were not so predictable; Trump promises lower prices – that would have happened if he could have just kept his foolish instincts and ego out of the way, but he undermines Americans with tariffs; he promises to make peace, but has to portray the strongman and goes to war with Iran.
This is not a stable genius, this is a fool in a bubble, an emperor with no clothes.
I was never a Trump lover, never voted for him.
A small town in the boonies has avocadoes?
Wow! Lots of small towns in the boonies
no longer have grocery stores.
show the change over a 14 year period
Food deserts are not accidental so that’s why one author calls it food apartheid.
I wouldn’t live here if there weren’t avocados.
We have the largest grocery stores for a 100-mile radius. That keeps the doors open and the prices high. But those who have the money drive over 100 miles to Sams Club, Target, and Walmart on a regular basis, taking their money out of town and out of state.
Larry, soon it will be food scarcity. The shelves are not empty yet, but there are fewer choices and many things are on back order. When they come in, one or two people buy up all of them. Of course, the healthiest foods were overpriced to begin with, but now those and name brands have skyrocketed. It’s like during covid.
I’m sure, those of you in cities have more food and supplies. Two more years of Trump and the rural areas’ populations will be reduced drastically, just like grocery stores and medical facilities.
VW, Right on target. Many communities are losing their businesses just like back in the 1980’s when small communities lost their businesses. Difficult to find a place to eat in many small towns.
The loss of small town business is the failure of capitalism. If a small town cannot be exploited for profit, greed-based capitalism says those people are of no value.
More and more, this absurd American capitalism has become its own best argument against itself and for socialism.
Netflix has a documentary called “Buy Now, The Shopping Conspiracy.”
It has an interesting take on consumerism.
Sure the junk at the Dollar Store costs more than $1 now but maybe we should just stop buying all that plastic which is just piling up in the landfills. (Only types one and two are actually recyclable y’know)
After watching the documentary I felt like this trash isn’t expensive enough.
Roy Cohn lost his law license. Orange king will lose his king license. Perhaps gain a 3rd impeachment license too. Tarrifs were a disaster for McKinley, Hoover and Orange.
Also after 2029 Orange won’t be able to be a socialist / communist, our government investment in Intel will disappear as we get a Capitalist Democratic Congress and President.
Make America Greenland Again! Free healthcare and free education just like Denmark! We can do this 1000 times a year, because we won’t be waiting for government and corporations to do it never. Every person and 1 or 2 people companies can do it!