Politico reports that the Sister District project is enlisting four 2020-minded Democratic U.S. Senators—Elizabeth Warren, Jeff Merkley, Chris Murphy, and Tim Kaine—in an effort to flip state legislatures from Republican to Democratic control and get a leg up on gerrymandering in 2020. Their flip foci: Arizona, Colorado, and New Hampshire.
South Dakota won’t get their attention, but I would like to point out that Democrats far and near could make an enormous difference in checking the worst impulses of South Dakota Republicans by turning maybe just 10,000 votes to elect six more Democrats to the South Dakota Senate.
Right now, Democrats hold six seats in our 35-seat Senate. Already, we’re held two of those seats, in Districts 1 and 15. We should be able to hold our seats in Districts 18, 21, 26, and 27.
What would it take to flip six more seats? Let’s look at the ten 2016 Senate races that Democrats lost by less than 3,000 votes and who’s running there this time:
| District | 2016 GOP margin | 2018 Dem candidate | 2018 GOP candidate |
| 8 | 94 | Scott Parsley | Jordan Youngberg |
| 17 | 1,058 | Howard Grinager | Arthur Rusch |
| 12 | 1,789 | Kasey Olivier | R. Blake Curd |
| 10 | 2,064 | Rachel Willson | Margaret Sutton |
| 4 | 2,323 | Dennis Evenson | John Wiik |
| 3 | 2,333 | Cory Allen Heidelberger | Al Novstrup |
| 11 | 2,463 | Kevin Elsing | Jim Stalzer |
| 13 | 2,495 | Melissa Hiatt | Jack Kolbeck |
| 7 | 2,682 | Mary Perpich | VJ Smith |
| 25 | 2,953 | Peter Klebanoff | Kris Langer |
Note that all but two of those Republicans, VJ Smith in 7 and recent Daugaard appointee Margaret Sutton in 10, are full incumbents. No one said winning six of these races would be easy.
But figure also that Democrats stand to benefit from at least three powerhouse state candidates—Billie Sutton for Governor, Tim Bjorkman for U.S. House, and Randy Seiler for Attorney General—who offer longer coattails than any other Democratic ticketleaders in this decade. And Donald Trump and racist hate rallies aren’t creating any more voters for Republican incumbents.
So consider: flipping just the six closest races above requires turning out 9,667 more votes for the Democratic contenders. 9,667 more Democratic votes—just a fifth of the erstwhile Stephanie Herseth Sandlin voters who have sat out since abandoning SHS in 2010—could put twelve Democrats in the Senate.
Why does twelve matter? Why am I not talking about flipping the Senate with eighteen Democrats? Even I will admit that tripling the Dem roll is a tall order (although, really, the data show it would take 26,316 more votes for Democrats in twelve districts, and even that number isn’t impossible for a well-funded and well-targeted canvassing campaign). Twelve is a reasonable hoping point: for just 10,000 more votes than we mustered in our truly awful, Trumpy 2016, Democrats could seize one third of the Senate. One third is a well known magic number:
- One third is enough to block motions to suspend the rules, giving Democrats power to stop parliamentary tricks by the majority.
- One third is enough to stop taxing and spending bills, giving Democrats real fiscal negotiating power.
- One third is enough to sustain a veto. Put Governor Billie Sutton in office, give him one third of one chamber, and his vetoes mean business… or, more accurately, his vetoes mean no monkey business from the Republicans, who will have to dicker with Democrats to pass anything and who will have to include some Democratic priorities in their legislation.
10,000 votes, one third of the Senate, and Governor Billie Sutton (the prospect of which has Republican insiders genuinely nervous) gets the chance to veto culture-war distractions, gerrymandered Legislative maps, and budgets that underfund education and health care.
10,000 votes—show me another state where Democrats can make that much difference in the direction of a state with so few new votes. Sister District, if you have spare volunteers, consider sending a few thousand calls South Dakota’s way to support the cause of better, balanced government nationwide.
Don’t you really only need 11, since Mr. Nelson is likely to win and always voted with the Democrats on those matters?
SAVE SOUTH DAKOTA ~ SEND CORY TO PIERRE … and be damn glad he’ll even do it for you.
@GRIDSnick Good to see I am living rent free in that establishment head of yours. Reviews of complete voting records on fiscal issues shows that’s a lie: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-LQbUgbRK4SUeoe3AISMqOomB8eo6Vpa
And a review of how I voted on key conservative Republican issues shows its a lie: http://www.sdcitizensforliberty.org/assets/senatescorecard18.pdf
But if the facts refute you, simply launch into the NAZI propaganda mode and lie, lie, lie..
Let us know when you come out of the closet, so many theories on which establishment RINO you are.
Nelson … Your first link has no author listed. Your second link is from SDCitizensForLiberty. What credibility and validity does this group have to rate anybody? Aren’t you a member of this small group? Aren’t you involved in rating yourself? Sounds like a church saying, “We’re the best church because we say we are. You’re not us so you suck, other churches.”
Nelson … Oh, I see the small print on the first chart. SDCitizensForLiberty chose the bills it wanted to rate. Again, what gives your group credibility or validity to rate anybody?
Grudz, Senator Nelson has an open invitation to join the only open, honest caucus in Pierre. But I’m crafting the map to guaranteed success that relies on no cross-party assistance. Anyone else who wants to help is gravy.
@Porter You’re like Pavlov’s dog. “Republican!” Porter: “bark, bark, howl.. bark, baller..”
The first one is CFL’s complete tabulation on every tax, fee, & spending bill in the 2018 regular session. No one has contested that it isn’t accurate that I am aware of. The author of each of those lines are the legislators themselves, they are responsible for their voting records. You don’t argue the assertions made that those bills they rated as liberal in fact expanded government via increased tax, fees, and spending, you simply rant and rave and complain CFL shouldn’t be allowed to tell the public how legislators voted and that conservatives shouldn’t be acknowledged for being so. That in itself is a concession that CFL was correct in their tabulations.
No it isn’t. Lot’s of people have said your group is invalid. You can tell anything you invent but you don’t make a case to anyone with a thinking mind. Even Grudz, who schools you continually.
And, don’t call names because I’ll make you cry like a sailor stoned on saltpeter. I’ve done it so many times you’ve run away like a bitch.
@Porter I’m right here little Colorado troll. You still make no seminal argument against either of CFL’s compilation of these legislators voting records. The only one delusional to think me being right here public all over SD as running from you in Colorado, is that little ❄️ You see in the mirror. You keep counting up your imaginary wins with your “friend” Grudz… in Colorado
You just make things up to make yourself look better.
What does this mean? [The only one delusional to think me being right here public all over SD as running from you in Colorado, is that little ❄️ You see in the mirror.]
Wash your tractor.
Mr. Nelson, you have been defeated by grudznick yet again. And Mr. Lansing got one of your fat, hobby farm goats.
Mr. H, when Mr. Nelson’s Insaner Clown Caucus falls apart, he likely will have to join the caucus you wish to join. He will, most likely, actually be a sitting senator, but as I understand it up to a dozen people can join who fit in the room.
Cory must be very happy to have such calm, reasoned discussion
on his blog.
Please tell me that the Stace Nelson who has spent the day acting like 2 year old with a dirty diaper isn’t a State Senator.
That would be a yuuuuge diaper, RJ.
Bah Zing! Point goes to Mr. Lansing for the tee off and a half point to RJ for the set up.
I only get a half-point Jerry? What game are we playing?
The set up for the lay up and the score. When you do the stats, you always recognize the part of the play that makes it all work. In my head game, that is a half…an appreciated half at that.
Leave Stace alone he is a good guy.
10,000 isn’t that many people. Does anyone know what SD Democrats and other orgs are doing for GOTV? If I win the lottery I will definitely throw several thousand dollars at a robust GOTV for SDDems. Wouldn’t that be sweeeeeeet?
But seriously, is PP doing something? Or Penn Dems, or ??? Can candidates actively participate in driving vans of people to the polls or similar GOTV activities?
Ms. Jenny, it is true that Mr. Nelson takes less than his fair amount of challenging, because he waves his ham fists in the air and bellers like a cow elk, but nobody, even Stacey himself, would cry out for mercy. Stacey, do I misrepresent your position here?
@Jenny Let the little fellas in their basement scream at their computers in frustration & delusional victory 😁 It’s better than having them having their meltdowns at the expense of public safety 😉
@Porter I’ve made nothing up. The CFL Scorecards are reviews of actual linked bills of interest to South Dakotans, you are unaware & uninterested as you are a Coloradan in Colorado. Rail at your computer little fella 🤣
@Grudz At least Porter in all his Colorado dilusional obsessive hatred of SD conservatives posts under his own identity. As creepy as he is, your obsession is worse.
Nelson,
Your charts are like the projects students do up here at Jefferson County Open School. They write their own curriculum and grade themselves on their own work. It teaches young liberals how to be meaningful and beneficial to our progressive society. It’s a bit ironic that you use a liberal paradigm to rate conservatives but that just shows your true innovative and reformist abilities. Give yourself a top grade … but you already did, didn’t you?
I get a little envious when Senator Nelson gets more attention than I do in a post that originally made no mention of him or his voting record. My willingness to tolerate such off-topic conversation about a political rival should signal to all District 3 voters how willing I am to give the views of members of the other party a full hearing.
As I said, if the good Senator from District 19 is willing to help me uphold a Sutton veto on a given piece of legislation that deserves a veto, I will happily welcome his support. If the good Senator from District 19 pushes a bad bill through the Senate and House, I will just as passionately and conscientiously oppose him and rally my caucus to sustain the veto and kill the Senator’s bad bill.
But that conversation is academic if we don’t round up 10,000 more Democratic votes in six key districts and send a strong one-third Democratic contingent to the Senate that won’t have to beg one or two or six cranky Republicans to help them make a difference.
Al Novstrup hasn;t had to work across the aisle during his entire legislative career in the heedless supermajority. Put me in a twelve-Democrat Senate, and I will show you real bipartisan collaboration the likes of which has not been seen in South Dakota in this century.