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CBO: Trump Policies Bring Trillion-Dollar Deficits, Don’t Change Obama Debt Trajectory

We’re not a rich country. We’re a debtor nation. We’ve got to get rid of — I talked about bubble. We’ve got to get rid of the $19 trillion in debt.

Donald Trump, March 31, 2016

Two years after Donald Trump said the United States had to eliminate its nineteen-trillion-dollar debt, the Congressional Budget office reports that the fiscal policies of the Trump Administration will add $804 billion to that debt this year, $981 billion next year, and over a trillion dollars every following year.

The CBO delayed its “Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028” by three months in order to incorporate the new math of Trump’s fiscal policies, the most prominent of which are the tax cuts passed last December. The report has lots of great charts and explanation, but the three simple graphs on the cover make clear that, on deficits, debt, and economic growth, Donald Trump is delivering zero positive change from previous administrations:

Outlays and Revenues, CBO, April 2018.
Outlays and Revenues projections, CBO, April 2018.

After saving America from a second Great Depression, President Obama saw the difference between federal spending and revenues shrink. Donald Trump’s policies allow that difference to grow and remain larger than the average post-Recession Obama deficits.

Federal Debt projection, CBO, April 2018.
Federal Debt projection, CBO, April 2018.

The Great Recession caused our national debt as percentage of GDP to double rather suddenly. President Obama slowed but was unable to reverse that growth. Donald Trump’s policies perpetuate that steady growth.

Real GDP Growth projection, CBO, April 2018.
Real GDP Growth projection, CBO, April 2018.

Donald Trump’s policies will give GDP a brief spike. However, the average long-term rate will settle to a level below President Obama’s second-term growth levels.

Another analysis shows that four years of Trump policies will rack up $5.683 trillion in additional debt, 84% of the debt that Obama policies incurred in eight years. And unlike Obama, Trump isn’t fighting a recession.

Just like Obama, but more so on deficits and debt—that’s what you Trump voters wanted, right?

9 Comments

  1. Debbo

    That’s the kind of thing we have to expect when the president is psychotic.

    It’s the rest of the GOP, the ones who can pass a basic mental assessment, who have no excuse for going along with his psychosis except their own personal greed and cruelty.

  2. Roger Cornelius

    “And unlike Obama, Trump isn’t fighting a recession”. I would add “yet” to that comment.
    Some of the economists that I have been reading over the past few months say the economic circumstances are ripe for a 2019-2020 recession, just in time for the presidential election.
    I’m reminded that during the 2016 campaign Trump promised to wipe out the national debt in 8 years, if elected. Given the economic mess he is creating, there isn’t any possibility of that happening, it is just another broken promise to his base.

  3. mike from iowa

    If memory serves if was Saint Ronnie Raygun that took America from one of the largest creditor nations to the largest debtor nation in under 8 years.

  4. o

    Roger, is it our income inequality that dooms the economy to the perpetual edge of recession? When so much wealth is concentrated by so few (with the intent of holding – not spending) and the real drivers of the economy are choked out of their ability to spend, the stark reality of current economic policy shows that for real economic health, more have to be let into the winners column.

  5. Roger, that “yet” alarms me. Trump and the Republicans burned up some stimulus potential with last year’s tax cuts. If the economy turns south, it’ll be harder for them to pour on more stimulus by that means. They’ll have to incur far more deficit spending… and I don’t think Trump or this Congress have the guts to increase government hiring and other investments to really prime an ailing economic pump.

    And, thinking of what O mentions, they certainly aren’t working hard to address income inequality. They are unraveling the safety net and sending more wealth to the top.

  6. Roger Cornelius

    Cory,
    While Trump supporters are dancing in the street celebrating the growth in their 401K’s, they foolish believe that the Trump economy will last forever. How many of the Trumpers will flip on Dear Leader when those 401K’s are worthless because of a recession.
    Trump is a hit and miss economic player as his trade war with China shows. He won’t pay attention to his economic advisors and will make some fateful mistakes very soon.

    By all indications, as you pointed out, this path to continued mounting debt cannot sustain itself.

  7. Roger Cornelius

    o is right about income inequality, as long as the poor, low income, and the middle class don’t have spending power the economy will remain stagnant, not just in South Dakota, but nationwide.
    There are already economic indicators that retail spending is down due in part to Trump’s trade war, people are being cautious with what money they have.

  8. Jason is also multi-bombing posts with the same links. Tiresome… but I’ll repeat my response:

    The key word Powerline takes from Investors Daily is “mostly”: “65% of the tax cuts are paid for by extra economic growth.”

    Jason’s link thus agrees with the original thesis of this post: Trump’s policies increase the deficit and don’t change the debt trajectory from the Obama era. Powerline/Investors Daily doesn’t refute this post: it supports what CBO reports.

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