The good news: Governing‘s Louis Jacobson says Trump and the Republican Congress have improved Democrats’ chances of winning governor’s races in 2018. In January, Jacobson rated 10 of the 36 governor’s races—six GOP, four Dem—as vulnerable for the incumbent party. Today Jacobson says that the number of vulnerable GOP seats has doubled while vulnerable Dem seats have ticked up by one.
The bad news: South Dakota is not one of Jacobson’s swing races.
The qualifying news: Jacobson doesn’t seem to be paying more than top-line Google attention to South Dakota’s gubernatorial race. In January, he called Kristi Noem “a slight early favorite” over Marty Jackley. Today he says Jackley “may have a modest edge” but says Noem would be tough to beat “if [she] decides to jump in.” Memo to Jacobson: Kristi’s been “All In” since November 2016.
In January, Jacobson said Democrats “are looking to Sioux Falls Mike Huether” to run for Governor, but that was nearly a month after Huether very publicly abandoned the party. Now Jacobson mentions Senator Billie Sutton’s expected nomination and his wheelchair but no analysis beyond the casual observation that South Dakota is a “heavily red state.” True, but not a terribly deep analysis of what could happen once we start talking policy and once South Dakotans are faced with a choice between an underwhelming GOP nominee and an eager Democratic campaigner ready to take advantage of another full year of public frustration with Trumpist arrogance and incompetence.
There is no clear frontrunner on either side in MN yet. Pawlenty might run again and Rep Tim Walz (D) of the 1st District is running. Walz is popular among veterans and has won in historically red So MN so I would put his name at the top of the DFL list.
2018 is shaping up to be a Democrat-friendly election year. Noem and Jackley will be going negative before long. Pierre has been controlled by Republicans for close to 40 years. Billie Sutton is fairly moderate.
Most importantly, he has a life story that almost everyone will identify with and a likable personality with which to tell that biography. Even I could vote for this guy and I was a Republican till 2016.
These honyocks ought to be driving voters to Democrat side. http://tinyurl.com/y8ofomsm
In iowa the landed gentry (and freakin’ wingnuts) hunt peasants.
Drumpf is having a twitter meltdown about russia investigation and how HRC is solely responsible for Drumpf Dossier. Drumpf has jumped the shark for about the millionth time in 9 months. Not to late to abort this mass of confusion.