The Dakota Access Pipeline and, as you know, the Keystone Pipeline, that was rejected by the previous administration. The Keystone Pipeline was dead. And the Dakota Access Pipeline was in even in worse shape because they built it but they weren’t allowed to hook it up. So I consider not starting even better than that. And in my first week, I approved both. It’s 42,000 jobs. The Dakota is already open and Keystone is starting; it’s actually already started. And that was done in the first week — got it approved [Donald Trump, remarks to U.S. and Japanese business leaders, Tokyo, 2017.11.06].
No one has effectively refuted the CBO’s numbers so far. Even data-averse Team Trump’s leading health care hacks can’t keep their story straight on whether they trust CBO or not, as shown by the traveling medicine show HHS Secretary Tom Price and Medicare chief Seema Verma tried to put on for the National Governors Association over the weekend:
They urged governors to ignore Congressional Budget Office estimates that 15 million fewer people would be covered by Medicaid by 2026 and that $772 billion would be cut from the program, compared to current law, under a Senate Republican bill that would eliminate Obamacare’s expansion of the program.
…But the closed-door session with Price and Verma on Saturday was “pretty atrocious,” said Connecticut Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy.
…Malloy said he argued with Price and Verma when — after Verma had taken issue with the Congressional Budget Office forecasts of coverage losses — Price cited the CBO analysis to back up a separate point.
In the absence of any coherent argument from Verma, Price, or other Republicans persisting in their petulant charade of “repealing” the Affordable Care Act, CBO’s analysis stands: the ACA provides millions of Americans with affordable coverage that Republicans want to take away.
And research shows that when more people are uninsured, folks with insurance also suffer:
…it is difficult for health providers to maintain services in areas with large numbers of patients who cannot pay for care. “Those communities are less attractive for physicians and other health care providers to locate,” said Ayanian. “That affects access to care for everyone,” he said, particularly for critical but high-cost services like trauma care, burn care and neonatal intensive care.
By 2026, 1.45 million fewer people would have jobs. Gross state products would drop by $162 billion and business output would be $265 billion lower, while 919,000 jobs would be lost in health care. More than half a million jobs (534,000) are lost in other sectors, including construction and real estate, finance, retail trade, and public employment. These downward trends would continue after 2026. These losses are substantially worse than the estimated effects of the AHCA [L. Ku, E. Steinmetz, E. Brantley et al., The Better Care Reconciliation Act: Economic and Employment Consequences for States, The Commonwealth Fund, July 2017.].
Did you catch that last line? The GOP Senate bill damages jobs and the economy more than the GOP House bill.
Republicans, do you really want to keep digging this hole?
“Before we discuss the Paris Accord, I’d like to begin with an update on our tremendous, absolutely tremendous economic progress since Election Day on November 8th. The economy has started to come back and very, very rapidly. We’ve added $3.3 trillion in stock market value to our economy and more than a million private sector jobs” [Heather Long, “Trump Takes Credit for 1 Million Jobs. Not True,” CNN: Money, 2017.06.02].
The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued the latest jobs figures this morning. The May 2017 show that, “Since January, the unemployment rate has declined by 0.5 percentage point, and the number of unemployed has decreased by 774,000.”
According to BLS, May job growth was below the average for the past year: “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 138,000 in May, compared with an average monthly gain of 181,000 over the prior 12 months.” That includes January jobs, two thirds of which, if we are going to buy into the dubious notion of crediting Presidents with jobs, we must apportion to President Barack Obama.
The labor force participation rate in May was 62.7%. 37.3% of Americans are choosing not to look for work, about the same as throughout the past year.
BLS has revised down the job creation numbers for April and March. So whatever exaggerations Trump made about his magical job-creating abilities following the March and April reports are even more exaggerated now.
Monthly job creation so far this year is below the average number of jobs created each month in the previous three years.
And as for that fantasy about bringing America back by sending us all back down to work in the coal mines, Donald Trump’s caveman thinking doesn’t make economic sense. Mining jobs continue to increase, but the 6,000 additional mining jobs appearing in May, mostly in support services, is a meager fraction of the meager 138,000 new jobs for the month…
Donald Trump’s claim to create a million jobs is like my telling my mom that I’ve cleaned my room when all that has happened is that the wind cleaned all the papers off my desk while I dumped more dirty laundry in my closet.
For Americans, this is an exciting time. A new spirit of optimism is sweeping our country: in just a few months, we have created almost a million new jobs, added over 3 trillion dollars of new value, lifted the burdens on American industry, and made record investments in our military that will protect the safety of our people and enhance the security of our wonderful friends and allies — many of whom are here today [Donald Trump, speech to leaders of 50+ Muslim countries, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as transcribed by CNN, 2017.05.21].
Creating jobs? Actually, in the only organization over which Trump currently has direct control over job creation, the federal government, Trump has imposed a hiring freeze and shed 8,400 jobs. Across the economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports monthly net changes in employment in 2017, January through April, of 216,000, 232,000, 79,000, and 211,000. If we give Trump credit for President Obama’s chunk of January to make up for not having data for May yet, those four figures add up to 738,000, less than three quarters of a millions. The average monthly net change in jobs in 2017 is 185,000, which is lower than the average monthly net change in jobs in every year of President Obama’s second term.
In touting “record investments in our military,” Trump mistakes wishes for horses:
He’s getting ahead of developments on military spending, with no budget passed. He also not proposing a record increase in military spending as his remarks might imply.
The 10 percent increase he called for in his March budget outline has been exceeded three times in recent history – the base military budget went up by 14.3 percent, in 2002, 11.3 percent in 2003 and 10.9 percent in 2008, according to the Pentagon. Looked at another way and deeper into history, military spending consumed 43 percent of the economy in 1944, during World War II, and 15 percent in 1952, during the Korean War. It was 3.3 percent in 2015, says the World Bank [Calvin Woodward and Christopher S. Rugaber, “AP Fact Check: Trump Exaggerates Record While Abroad,” AP via Hudson Valley News 12, 2017.05.22].
We can’t believe Trump on jobs, the economy, or the military. There may be no war of civilizations, but Trump continues his war on facts.
Now TPC analyzed the March bill that failed. TPC and CBO may provide updated figures next week, when everyone has had time to read the bill that Noem hastily yea’d yesterday.
But 40% of $765 billion is $306 billion that’s currently doing good for millions of Americans that Kristi thinks should be redistributed up the ladder to Donald Trump and the other richest one percent of Americans.
Trump’s “plan” to bring back coal jobs by rolling back Obama-era environmental regulations is woefully misguided:
If you’ve not been paying attention, coal has been taking a tumble recently. In America, its use fell by 30 percent between 2011 and 2016. The new analysis of what accounts for that slump makes for interesting reading: the Columbia team attributes around half of coal’s decline to the affordability of natural gas, 26 percent to reduced electricity demand, and 18 percent to surging renewables.
The Trump administration has strenuously argued that President Obama introduced rules that placed unnecessary burdens on the burning of coal. The study does indeed identify 10 regulations introduced under the Obama administration—from the notorious Clean Power Plan to more obscure Effluent Guidelines—that will have dampened the sector. But it also finds that they would account for just a 3.5 percent decline in coal. And that’s an upper estimate that assumes all 10 rules had an additive effect on the industry [Jamie Condliffe, “Here’s Why Trump’s Plan to Save the Coal Industry is Doomed,” MIT Technology Review, 2017.04.27].
Meanwhile, local wind company Prevailing Winds board member Erik Johnson says his industry is on the upswing:
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, there are now 374,000 American jobs in solar energy and 102,000 jobs in wind energy across the country. For comparison, 160,000 Americans currently work in coal, 360,000 in natural gas and 515,000 in oil.
If you look at employment on a per capita basis, North Dakota and South Dakota surprisingly come out on top for jobs in wind. In North Dakota, 4.3 out of every 1,000 jobs are in wind energy and South Dakota has 3.6 out of every 1,000 jobs in wind energy. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, wind turbine service technician is the fastest growing job in the U.S., with median pay of $51,000 per year, so we could push our jobs number much higher in the next few years, with just the projects that are currently proposed [Erik Johnson, “Wind Benefits Are Real and Growing,” letter to the editor, that Sioux Falls paper, 2017.04.27].
Historical Employment Notes: Monthly unemployment in South Dakota peaks every January: DOL stats since 1990 show that South Dakota off-loads an average of 11,900 jobs from the normal October peak to January hibernation time, leaving an average of 4,300 South Dakotans looking for work in January than were looking in October. Our unemployment rate jumps an average of 1.1 percentage points from October to January.
Looked at from the positives, the numbers of employed and available workers peak every summer, dip when school resumes, resurge a bit at harvest time, then tank in winter.
The latest report from the US Department of Energy (DOE) reveals solar energy accounts for the largest proportion of employers in the Electric Power Generation sector, with wind energy the third largest, while the coal industries have declined in the past 10 years.
According to the Energy Information Administration, electric generation technologies are expected to add over 26 GW of utility-scale capacity over 2016. The majority of these additions are coming from three main resources: solar (9.5 GW), natural gas (8 GW), and wind (6.8 GW). Together, these three sources make up 93 percent of total additions [U.S. Department of Energy, “U.S. Energy and Employment Report,” January 2017, p. 21].