The latest fundraising e-mail from U.S. House candidate Shantel Krebs touts her backing by big Republican donors seeking to counteract the efforts of pro-choice Emily’s List to elect women who respect women’s rights to Congress. Hmm… is Krebs sure she wants to brag up her support from these out-of-state millionaires?
Winning for Women arose from a series of joint fundraising committees set up over the past two cycles and supported by some of the Republican Party’s biggest donors, including Linda McMahon, Betsy DeVos, Robert and Rebekah Mercer, TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts and his son, Todd, and the hedge fund billionaire Paul Singer [Eliana Johnson, “Big GOP Donors Launch Group to Elect Republican Women,” Politico, 2017.10.25].
McMahon, Mercer, DeVos—all Trumpista oligarchs, all from elsewhere, all pouring outside money to twist South Dakota’s politics to their selfish ends. Hey, G. Mark! Where’s the outrage trying to hijack our House race?
Through Q3, 94.7% of Krebs’s itemized individual contributions came from individuals listing South Dakota addresses. Over the last four quarters, Johnson’s count on that metric is 90.1%. In his first quarter of campaigning, Democrat Tim Bjorkman has raised 91.5% of his itemized individual contributions from South Dakotans.
The Krebs e-mail also touts a Roll Call article that declares Krebs the frontrunner in the House race:
Ask Republican strategists about viable female House recruits for next year, and the first name that consistently comes up is South Dakota Secretary of State Shantel Krebs.
As the front-runner for the GOP nomination in the at-large seat, her candidacy gives the party a rare opportunity to replace a retiring female Republican with another woman [Simone Pathé, “Republicans Look to Make up Loss of House Women,” Roll Call 2017.10.24].
I’m not sure on what basis Pathé makes that frontrunner conclusion. Krebs has lived up to the early signs of fundraising prowess I reported in April and, as of September 30, and raised more money this year than Johnson, $404,046.21 to $369,654.18. But throw in the $104,942 Johnson pulled induring Quarter 4 of 2016, and he’s still ahead of Krebs in receipts.* In the absence of reliable polling, the only recent thermometer in the turkey of voter opinion is the GOP State Fair straw poll, and Johnson won that 54% to 46%. The National Republican Congressional Committee isn’t picking favorites: they’ve recognized both Johnson and Krebs as viable candidates in their early “On the Radar” picks.
*Correction 17:15 CDT: Oh! In my original post, I forgot to count the 2016 Q4 money in Dusty’s column! Count that money, and he’s still the total cash frontrunner. I regret the error and wonder further by what metric Roll Call deems Krebs the frontrunner.