University of Minnesota political scientist Eric Ostermeier casts an occasional pessimistic glance at South Dakota Democrats (and so far, we haven’t done much to defy his pessimism). Dr. Ostermeier hasn’t weighed in specifically on Democrat Billie Sutton’s qualities as a candidate, but in a general review of the Trump Party’s prospects in 2018 gubernatorial races, Ostermeier includes South Dakota in his sure-to-stay-red column:
In 2018, the GOP has a virtual lock on states like Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Wyoming which would put them, at a minimum, over the 30 percent mark across the 36 states to hold elections (with the party favored in several other states) [Dr. Eric Ostermeier, “How Many Gubernatorial Seats Will the GOP Lose in 2018?” Smart Politics, 2017.06.11].
Donald Trump could help Sutton pick that lock. Since 1898, Ostermeier calculates that candidates from the president’s party have won 43.1% of gubernatorial elections. The Republicans’ worst showing came in 1974:
During the 30 midterms since the McKinley administration, the poorest showing by the president’s party came in 1974 after the Watergate fallout and Nixon’s resignation.
Republicans won only seven of 35 races for governor that cycle (20.0 percent): in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and South Carolina. (And three of these seven were by less than a percentage point: Jay Hammond in Alaska, Robert Bennett in Kansas, and James Edwards in South Carolina) [Ostermeier, 2017.06.11].
The Republican President having horrible week after horrible week, a pattern of impeachable behavior building, the South Dakota GOP gov-frontrunners both clinging to the Donald—hang in there, Billie! you may get your chance to shake up Dr. Ostermeier’s numbers!
Mr. Sutton will have to be very careful to not be viewed as just another overgodder. If he touts some of his famous parties he can get back some of the regular Joe vote.
“grudznick” writes:
With no candidate to his left, the only apparent motive to avoid talking about God would be a genuine belief that He doesn’t exist or isn’t important. I strongly doubt that Billie’s Baptist credentials will result in a net loss of votes, even if “grudznick” ends up voting Republican in protest.
“With no candidate to his left, the only apparent motive to avoid talking about God would be a genuine belief that He doesn’t exist or isn’t important.” Kurt Evans
Most people don’t go around evangelizing. Nor do people expect to hear a sermon when they hear a politician speak. Politicians that go around talking about God are usually pushing the prosperity gospel. You know, the one about millionaires and billionaires being blessed by God, so they should be blessed by the government too with lower taxes. Poor people are unfavored by God, so they should be cast aside by government and made to suffer like God wants them to. That’s what Thune, Rounds and Noem preach when they talk about God. We have too much political evangelizing in SD already.
If Sutton is going to witness, I’d like him to witness against the prosperity gospel and remind folks what Jesus actually talked about.
But I look forward to Ostermeier’s follow-up on the details of Sutton’s campaign, to see if his assessment of the SD race changes any.
Norm doesn’t stand a chance because….well….she has a vagina. Marty Jackley has been serving our state for years, and it seems to me that i know remarkably little about him. Doesn’t really speak well for him as far as I’m concerned. I don’t see him campaigning well. Sutton seems to be very likeable. My brother saw him speak at something a while back and said he was impressive. He was surprised to find out he was a Democrat. I think Sutton has as good a chance, likely a better chance, then the past few Democratic candidates. Given the current political climate though…… I don’t hold out much hope for Sutton.
Chip, how did Noem’s sex not stand in the way of her beating Matt Varilek in 2012? She also beat men in her Legislative races in 2006 and 2008. I haven’t checked his britches personally (or Noem’s for that matter), but I’m pretty sure he’s packing the same equipment as I am.
I hear ya Cory, but I don’t think they’ll elect a woman to be Gov. I wish I had more faith in them than that. :(